Sunday, April 27, 2014

The Lack of jobs is still a big problem



Congress gave the Federal Reserve a “dual mandate” to pursue “maximum employment” and “stable prices.” Most analysts agree that, during the recovery, the labor market has been nowhere near “maximum employment” and inflation, if anything, has been too low rather than too high given the Fed’s percent inflation target — notwithstanding Fed critics who want the Fed to concentrate exclusively on inflation.

In this recovery, unemployment has been falling but so, too, has the labor force participation rate (the share of people aged 16 and older either working or looking for work).
Due to those changing demographics and normal retirement decisions by baby boomers, the participation rate (and employment-population ratio) we would see with a healthier labor market is almost surely lower than in 2007 and will continue to fall.
That’s the right policy given the shortfall between actual labor market conditions and those that would reflect any reasonable definition of maximum employment — especially when there is still no evidence of the high inflation that Fed critics were sure these policies would engender by now.
As many analysts properly note, aging baby boomers are now swelling the ranks of workers aged 55 and older, and they have much lower labor force participation rates than those in their prime working years, ages 25 to 54.
Accordingly, the Fed has maintained a “highly accommodate” stance with respect to its dual mandate goals, keeping its policy interest rate as close to zero as practicable and adopting “unconventional” tools like “forward guidance” for setting that policy rate and large-scale asset purchases (“quantitative easing”) in order to stimulate greater economic activity and job growth.

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